Contrarian trading vs herd following (big personal post!)

This post will get very personal, in a sense that I will be more and more writing about my personal trading, and how I archived profit in forex. So take a deep breath and continue reading !

I believe they are 2 good maxims in forex trading and trading in general. The trend is your friend and buy low sell high. Both makes sense, and both are actually true. But if you think about it, one of them is more logical than the other. The trend is your friend makes sense because if you are buying, you want other people to be buying too, so price goes up, and you will make a profit. But that also means that you bought at a lower price, and that the trend, well.. wasn’t there yet. How you knew price was going in your direction is then a little magical.

Buy low sell high is different. I see it as a ode to contrarian trading because on a second thought it means that the lower the price is, the bigger your potential profit can be (for a long example). Now things get a little personal. Contrarian traders are smart, and they will  look for spikes entries. A spike offers you the perfect opportunity because it is an irregular movement of the price, and it gives you a very good risk/profit ratio. If price pops up by 20 pips suddendly, you will be looking to sell high (short), and buy low (cover). Of course a lot of technical conditions should be taken into consideration, such as support & resistance, but you see my point.

Now let’s look at a random chart example on EURUSD .in 5minutes candles.

The 2 horizontal green lines represent the support zone. Why 2, well because I believe you cannot pinpoint a support, and see it more as a “demand zone”. I will make another post about this later ! Anyways the 2 horizontal red lines are resistance zones. I circled in green the price testing the demand zone. If no majors news are expected, and stock movement is flat / nothing special (I will also make another post about the correlation between stocks and currencies !) , then that would be a contrarian buying opportunity. As you can see in these 3 cases price went quickly up after that.

I also circled in red a contrarian short opportunity. Notice that in all those circles, there is always a spike of the price, also called a “wick”. When you are looking at the charts with candlesticks, that basically means there was a quick movement of the price AND THEN a quick retracement. Thats usually an indicator of reversal. Now I said in many other posts that a successful trader will spend most of his time waiting for an entry, and then for an exit. Now we would be waiting to take a contrarian entry on the wicks. The beauty of this is you usually turn green (in profit) almost instantly.

That’s all i got on my mind for today, but I will be updating this post probably this week. If you have any questions/comments , feel free to post below !




Photos from my travels

Just wanted to post some photos taken by me to relax and give you energy between the hardcore sessions of FX trading 😉

Don’t forget to click on the pictures for full size, i tried to add a description in the caption, but its also in the name of the pic itself. I will be updating this gallery regularly !

UPDATED : June 18th 2014

Below from 2012




How to trade forex gaps: difference between novices and pros

As you can see I do a lot of gap trading. I like to talk about it on my blog because it is one of the well known strategy that I can share, compared to some personal strategies I have.
Now I just uploaded a screen capture from Sam Seiden where he dissects forex gaps on live charts. Most traders see a gap, then hope to close it. But it’s not that simple. Sam explains the difference between novice gaps and professional gaps. This is very interesting and accurate, since I have been taking this into account while trading my personal account.

Forex Canada

I just recently came across an article about the state of Forex Trading in Canada wich is completely devastating.

You really have to know which broker to trust, and I will try to give you the facts.

So basically the IIROC (the main financial regulation agency) is taking over Forex. Most brokers are freaking out and it’s difficult for Canadians to find a good forex broker who will offer them good conditions.

As I hope you read my how to choose a forex broker page, we traders just want simple things from our broker, but it’s getting more and more difficult to get good trading conditions. All we need is small spreads, good leverage, easy deposit & withdrawal methods, good trading platform with no requotes and finally good customer support.

But most importantly, this is the broker I chose when I started to be profitable, so I can actually say that they will send you money when you make it hehe (biggest withdrawal I made in 1 day was 3000$ i believe).

Does your broker offer this?

  • INSTANT withdrawal (automated withdrawals without any human interventions) through all the same webmoney services  (moneybookers, alertpay, etc)
  • Spreads ?  0.1 pip on EURUSD and GBPUSD. Yes they are that crazy.
  • Leverage ? Industry first 1:1000 leverage. And now offering 1:2000. I think they have to stop the vodka !
  • Trading possibilities = 134 currency pairs + CFDs on stocks and futures from the world leading exchange
  • Expert Advisors or scalpers? They like them so much they actually GIVE you a free VPS server to host your robot….
  • Diversified base currency accounts, I never seen something like that anywhere, you are basically hedging your whole account with different currencies or even gold and silver! (check the screen shot here)
  • It is regulated in Cyprus = no FIFO bullshit and no smallish 1:100 leverage.
  • Minimum deposit 100$, and free trial account with real trading conditions.

So here this the link : click here to check out my broker!

Forex Bonus Germany

During my trip in Europe, I passed by the beautiful town of Heidelberg, Germany.
So to thank ze Germans for their hospitality, I am sharing below the Forex Brokers who offer an instant bonus if you are from Germany.

Während meiner Reise in Europa, ging ich von der schönen Stadt Heidelberg, Deutschland.So um die Deutschen für ihre Gastfreundschaft danken, ich unter den Forex Broker, die einen sofortigen Bonus anbieten, wenn Sie aus Deutschland teilen.

Up to 5000$ bonus with eToro !

Instant bonus +10% with Easy-Forex

That’s how you will have the access to the special bonus program. Now for the cherry on top, here are 2 photos I took while trading on the river side of Heidelberg.